Election days come and go. But the struggle of the people to create a government which represents all of us and not just the one percent – a government based on the principles of economic, social, racial and environmental justice – that struggle continues.
– Bernie Sanders, US senator
It appears inevitable that the political agreement between the federal government and Pakatan Harapan (PH) to not hold the 15th general election (GE15) before July 31 this year will not be extended.
United Malay National Organisation (UMNO) – which is in the driving seat of the future of the agreement – doesn’t appear to be keen to extend the deal. A fact that is made clear by its leaders who pushed harder for GE15 to be held this year on the back of a purportedly shelved cabinet reshuffle.
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob is beholden to the party – another fact that he knows very well and so does other UMNO leaders.
The party leaders are now, as Malay Mail put it, “lighting fire under Ismail Sabri’s feet to call GE15”. The ball is now in the prime minister’s court.
Sources quoted by the English daily had said Barisan Nasional (BN) component parties are prepared for an election campaign with the ultimate goal of regaining parliamentary supermajority.
The prime minister, an UMNO vice-president, has previously indicated his reluctance to call for an early general election, alluding to the current economic condition in the country.
He had argued that rising costs in food and other living expenses were among the reasons to push back the election.
But we all know too well that the current government is on borrowed time, and he – the prime minister – is on borrowed time.
The 62-year-old was ushered into the limelight following the resignation of his predecessor, Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin who lost majority support last year.
In doing so, he was fast-tracked to being the nation’s head of government after only being deputy prime minister for 40 days – the nation’s shortest serving deputy premier.
He was the right man, at the right place, at the right time, apparently being the agreeable choice for other components that make up the federal government at the time – especially Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM), which isn’t at the best of terms with UMNO.
UMNO had previously retracted its support for Muhyiddin due to indifferences with the former prime minister and his party, PPBM, which he is president of.
Former Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak’s surge in popularity had helped UMNO, and by extension, Barisan Nasional. This led to the coalition’s resurgence after being voted out in the 14th general election (GE14) in 2018.
This swayed public sentiment away from Pakatan Harapan (PH), and PPBM, a party which used to be a PH component.
The memorandum of understanding (MOU) which PH signed with Ismail Sabri’s administration shortly following his ascension, was to buy time – rectifying the mistakes of his predecessor, Muhyiddin.
Muhyiddin had his battles with PH along with UMNO – which proved to be one enemy too many.
At the same time, Ismail Sabri also made it a point to be on similar footing with Najib, his former boss, who still has vast influence in the party and more importantly, the public. This too, was to buy time – putting him in the good books of UMNO.
It was the Najib factor that drove UMNO and BN to back-to-back wins in elections that followed GE14 – be it state elections or by-elections. Ismail Sabri is aware of this.
It appears that sooner, rather than later, the prime minister will yield to the wishes of his party – after all, he is a party man first and foremost.
Arguably, there is only so much time that he could buy. His party has made clear of its intention to go into battle in GE15.
Federal minister Datuk Zuraida Kamaruddin, who is formerly of PPBM has left the party, leaving her position in the cabinet untenable – PPBM has since laid claim to the upcoming vacancy.
This has foiled Ismail Sabri’s attempts to consolidate his position in the cabinet. But in all honesty, any efforts to paper over the cracks of Zuraida’s departure by reshuffling the cabinet will only serve to buy time.
It is realistic to expect GE15 to be held soon. UMNO and BN have built a good momentum since the last general election and they, very well, could take this home – winning it by a comfortable majority.
In any case, a supermajority would definitely restore the country’s stability in terms of politics – one we have been pining for since PH and GE14.
As the political saying goes, “let’s press the button”.
