I presume the green wave will only occur in areas where the majority of the voters, 70 per cent and above, are Malays.
– Dr Azmi Hassan, senior fellow of Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research
Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) couldn’t have asked for a sweeter victory: his PH-Barisan Nasional (BN) alliance retained both the Pulai parliamentary and Simpang Jeram state assembly seats in Johor’s weekend by-elections.
Many had predicted a ‘1-1 victory’ for the Prime Minister’s coalition with Pulai staying with PH, and following some expectations that Simpang Jeram would be wrested by Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin’s Perikatan Nasional (PN). But it didn’t go that way; in the end the score was a sweet 2-0 for PH after it retained both seats, albeit with a reduced majority in Pulai.
But honestly, who cares! Victory by whatever margin, even by a one-vote majority is still a victory as declared by the then Umno president Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad after he narrowly retained the party presidency by a mere 43-vote majority against challenger Tan Sri Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah in the 1987 party elections.
PH’s win was sweet because of the prediction that the largely Malay seat of Simpang Jeram would go to the PN-PAS alliance following a surprise court decision to discharge (not amounting to acquittal) Anwar’s staunch ally, Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, of 47 corruption charges.
The decision, which as expected was played up by the opposition, however, didn’t affect the overall results in both seats.
Instead in Simpang Jeram, PH’s Nazri Abdul Rahman secured 13,844 votes against PN’s Dr Mohd Mazri Yahya of PAS, who garnered 10,330 votes, winning by a 3,514-vote majority. The other candidate, Independent S. Jeganathan, forfeited his deposit when he managed only 311 votes.
The voter turnout in Simpang Jeram was 60.85 per cent.
The state constituency has 28,193 voters, where the Malays make up 53.42 per cent, followed by the Chinese (43.32 per cent) and Indians (2.75 per cent).
PH’s winning margin bettered its performance in the 15th general election in March 2022 when the late incumbent Datuk Seri Salahuddin Ayub polled 8,749 votes against Zarul Salleh of PN who garnered 6,350 votes in a three-way fight. PH’s winning margin then was 2,399 votes. The other candidate was Umno’s Datuk Lokman Md Don.
But in Pulai this time around, PH’s winning margin was trimmed to a vote-majority of 18,641 when its candidate Suhaizan Kaiat polled 48,283 votes defeating PN’s Zulkifli Jaafar (29,642 votes) and Independent Samsudin Mohamad Fauzi (528 votes). Samsudin lost his deposit. In the 15th general election Salahuddin won with a 33,174-vote majority after polling 64,900 votes.
The voter turnout in Pulai was a disappointing 47 per cent compared to 71 per cent in the last general election.
The constituency has 167,108 registered voters with Malays making up 44.17 per cent, closely followed by Chinese (40.47 per cent) and Indians (12.3 per cent).
But Suhaizan was not worried by the low turnout, attributing the poor response to the weather condition, voters’ lack of interest in by-elections, and lack of awareness.
The double victory can be seen as a respite for Anwar and his government despite earlier talk that the PN-PAS ‘green wave’ would swarm Johor after sweeping aside PH in the recent August state polls in Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah.
The Johor results also bode well for Anwar’s coalition in the upcoming October 7 Pelangai state seat by-election in Pahang.
But more importantly, I believe the weekend results showed that the decision to drop charges against Zahid did not severely affect the people’s perception of and support for Anwar and his government. The results will also place the Prime Minister’s coalition on a more stable footing following PH’s not very convincing August state elections performance. Anwar can also now exert his political authority and carry out his numerous unfulfilled pledges.
Even more significant is that the Johor results will enhance PH-BN cooperation and prove the effectiveness of the alliance, while silencing critics within Zahid’s party. The victories will stabilise Anwar’s government and weaken PN-PAS pressure on the unity government. To a certain extent, the Umno party president has proven naysayers wrong for predicting that the Umno-PH alliance would sound the death knell for the once-leading Malay party.
A pivotal point to note is that the Pulai parliamentary win means PH-BN has regained control of the all-important two-thirds majority of 148 seats in the 222-seat parliament – which the alliance lost by just one seat – when Salahuddin died which forced the Johor by-elections. PN and partners control the remaining 74 seats.
The victory could also mean PN’s claims of taking over Putrajaya in the near future are just a lot of hot air and seen as excessive politicking.
One thing is for sure; Anwar will now seriously think of amending the federal Constitution when he still commands the two-thirds to redraw electoral boundaries before the 16th general election in 2027. But with the recent threat by Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (Muda) to withdraw support for the PH government, it is yet to be seen for how long the unity government can hold on to its two-thirds.
Muda holds the Muar parliamentary seat through president Syed Saddiq Abdul Rahman. The party might now reconsider its decision following the Johor results.
Now that the Johor by-elections are over, Anwar’s unity government should get down to business and work on the unfulfilled 15th general election promises. With continued unwavering support from staunch ally Zahid and his Umno MPs, and Datuk Patinggi Tan Sri Abang Johari Tun Openg’s powerful Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), Anwar should concentrate on issues like escalating food prices, and apply the brakes on politicians harping on racial and religious issues which are seriously affecting peace and harmony in this country.
Anwar’s next crucial test is the October 7 Pelangai by-election in Pahang.
The views expressed here are those of the columnist and do not necessarily represent the views of New Sarawak Tribune.
